Nikon D800 with 24MP or 16MP?

Rumors rumors rumors. Rumors have it that Nikon will *finally* announce the Nikon D800 at Photokina. Everyone seems to agree that it will be a D3s "light" with the form factor of the Nikon D700. Also everyone agrees that it will have 1080p video. So believing the post from all over the world, we can start to be happier and happier. The only open question at this time is MP resolution.

• 24 MP say:
  www.photokb.com, www.reportagesphotos.fr, www.howtofixcomputers.com, www.velocityreviews.com, www.kenrockwell.com
• 16 MP say:
  www.1001noisycameras.com, www.digitalrev.com, www.fotoactualidad.com, www.dentonimages.com, www.eoshd.com, www.nikon-d800.net (this blog)

So I stick with my prediction. 16 MP will appeal to all those low noise lovers and explain a transition from the D700. 24 MP would eat too much into the D3x / D4x market. 16MP it is.

Nikon D800 on top of other names

If you were still doubting that Nikon D800 is the name of choice, have a look at the traffic the name generates according to Google insights.

Nikon D800 it is !

16MP Nikon D800

So rumors about a launch of a Nikon D800 are intensifying. DigitalRev.com - known for serious stuff usually - report that their sorces expect no D700s but a leap towards the Nikon D800. Here is the reasoning:

While the Nikon D700S would be a terrific option, it does not quite make for the sucker punch to Canon's more recent domination with the Canon 5D Mark II. Hence, Nikon will be going ahead with their new model the Nikon D800. Basically, the Nikon D800 will be almost exactly the same spec as the Nikon D3S except for the sensor resolution which will be raised to 16 megapixels. 

Makes a lot of sense to me. Other relevant blogs like 1001noisycameras.com are picking it up as well. With Photokina approaching, we will know for sure within short :-).

New Nikon D800 Specs

Reportedly, there are three Chinese websites that list the Nikon D800 with refreshed specs.

• ZOL.com.cn
• yesky.com
• pchome.net

Specs are:

• CMOS, 35.9 × 24mm, 24,600,000 effective pixels (6048 × 4032)
• 7 fps continuous shooting
• LCD 3.0" 920.000 pixels 
• Video: Full HD 1920 × 1080 (24fps), 1280 × 720 (24fps), 640 × 424 (24fps), 320 × 216 (24fps)
• Multi-CAM 3500FX 51 point AF
• ISO 200 - 6,400 (100 - 25,600 extended)

I personally would not need so many MP but apart from the MP this set of specs would mean a dream coming true. 

Nikon D700x and D700s overdue, Nikon D800 becoming much more likely

Dentonimages published a very nice piece about the future of the D700 - that is: about its possible successors. Basically, there are three options, DI says:

1. Nikon D700x to compliment the D700. This would presumably bring the D3X sensor into a smaller D700 body, the same way as the D700 used the D3 sensor.
2. Nikon D700s updating the D700 with the sensor from the D3s body.
3. A D800 (or D900) with a new sensor, rumored to be around 16-18mp, as a more general purpose camera trying to fill the demand from both sports shooters and landscape/studio shooters.

Given the above, both (1) and (2) make sense based on Nikon’s history of re-using sensors in lower end bodies (think D200->D80->D40x->D3000, or D300->D90->D5000, or D3->D700). However timing on these is usually about 9 months apart, give or take a couple of months. If a D700X was going to happen, the ideal time would have been fall 2009, so it’s now nearly a year overdue.

A D700s should be due/overdue about now

A D800 (or D900) camera that offers a new sensor with a compromise on resolution and frame rate would also make sense, making for one less camera to support in the sales channel (compared with fielding both a D700s and D700x), and being closer to Canon’s 5D Mark II offering (presuming it would have advanced video).

The other consideration, is the original Canon 5D was current for over 3 years. Rumors out of Canon claim the 5D Mark II is also expected to have a 3 year life cycle, and various Nikon reps are on record as saying ‘No D700 replacement this year’. The D700 passed its second birthday earlier this month.

My conclusion from that all is that both a D700x or a D700s are long overdue and thus are not going to happen at all. And on the flipside, if the cycle is 3 years, we will see a D700 successor next summer. Possibly to be announced at Photokina this fall.

Finally a decent Nikon DSLR roadmap

Today I found this really nice piece of thinking on scout-images.com. Best of all, they put together a good looking roadmap for nikon DSLR cameras. A successor to the D700 is expected in the third quarter of 2010. Here is the roadmap.

Rebates ending 31 July. And then, Nikon?

The instant rebates on the Nikon D700 at Calumetphoto, but also at B&H and Adorama are coming to an end, seemingly. Until then, buyers can have a $100 rebate on the body and a $200 rebate on a kit. We are eagerly awaiting the end of that period. Personally I wouldn't recommend anyone to buy before that date. Rebates will come back or prices will drop, but more likely a successor will be announced between August and latest in September during Photokina.